Managing uncertainty in climatedriven ecological models. Background on uncertainty in climate change climate change science and policy have focused largely on projecting the central tendencies of major variables and impacts. This article evaluates the capacity of natural resource governance to cope with the effects of climate change and provides a framework for. Fcerm appraisal guidance follows the treasury 2003 green book in defining risk in the. Modelling of a range of scenarios is constrained by cost and complexity. The best books on climate change and uncertainty recommended by kate marvel when we talk about climate change, we sometimes assume people will be swayed by one more graph, one more coherent argument.
Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy friederike e. The principle of risk management articulated in the climate change act adds further requirements of transparency, comprehensibility and striving for best practice when managing and allocating climate change risks. Kohichi fujita research coordinator for watershed management, river department, national institute for land and infrastructure management. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy nature. This handbook also presents case studies that provide illustrative examples in which the latest science and methods on climate change, including uncertainty and adaptive management approaches, have been applied outside academia. Conclusion finally, we discuss what to emphasise in future studies to improve the understanding of adaptive forest management and decision support tools needed to cope with climate change. This book offers an accessible philosophical treatment of the broad range of ethical and. Climate outreach information network is now trading as climate outreach.
Robert wysockis adaptive project framework focuses on the proposition that, since most current it projects evolve as they go and begin with uncertain requirements, traditional project methods are. Climate change uncertainties pose challenges for flood risk managers. Martin bunzl takes the idea of climate change as a risk management problem seriously. Her research interests lie in decisionmaking under uncertainty, flexible institutional responses to climate change impacts and local government practice. Climate outreach is a charitable company, limited by guarantee, founded in 2004 to increase public understanding and awareness of climate change.
Dec 10, 2016 high uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject. Although the basic science is wellunderstood and now seems con. The extent to which climate change will affect an activity depends on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the activity. For everyone else, the fact that uncertainty inherent in.
Adaptive management to address climate change uncertainty in. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives. The scope of an hcps monitoring, reporting and adaptive management program should be. Adaptive collaborative management can help us cope with. Uncertainty is a complex concept that can be described in multiple ways, and its consideration in decision support has evolved over time. Governments around the world are investing heavily in coupledclimate models to project future climate change. It believes there is sufficient scientific evidence for climate change to be treated as a major risk to society. Adaptive management to address climate change uncertainty. Adaptive collaborative management acm is a participatory approach that links forest stakeholders, empowers local communities and their subgroups, and strengthens adaptive capacities. Oct 25, 2007 climate change s uncertainty principle scientists say they can never be sure exactly how extreme global warming might become, but thats no excuse for delaying action by david biello on october 25.
Employment in agriculture as share of total employment, by. Overview of why don mouth naturalization and port lands flood protection project ea. Climate change necessitates globally activating forest communities in mitigation and adaptation efforts. If youre looking for a free download links of climate change and policy. Uncertainty about future climate change is an unavoidable fact. Introduction natural resource management will change in the 21st century because climate change is impacting many components of ecosystems, often in novel and surprising ways millar et al. This handbook relies on approaches that have been developed and applied to regional watershed planning processes. However, the ability to fully explore the implications of climate change uncertainty across a range of emissions scenarios and climate models is highly constrained by the cost of available expertise at local levels where responsibility for flood risk management has been devolved. Adaptive management national academies, adaptive management for water resources project planning, the national academies press, washington, dc, 2004. Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management. What are the main uncertainties regarding climate change.
More facts dont change minds, and deeply held views dont always dictate behaviour. Scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change. Managing uncertainty in climatedriven ecological models to. This is part of an faoled process to prepare climate change guidelines for forest managers. Such models have interacting atmosphere, ocean, land and seaice. The principle of risk management articulated in the climate change act adds further requirements of transparency, comprehensibility and striving for best practice when. Managing the uncertainty and risks of climate change. Aug 05, 2015 we argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be antifragile with respect to scientific uncertainty. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest management. Uncertainty in climate predictions douglas nychka,1national center for atmospheric research ncar, juan m.
Management of climate uncertainties shaped by concerns about institutional risk. Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management article pdf available in ecology and society 12 december 1997 with 565 reads how we measure reads. Judy lawrence is adjunct research associate at the nz climate change research institute and undertaking doctoral research in the school of government, at victoria university of wellington, new zealand. Uncertainty and change can relate to planning, engineering, socioeconomic andor environmental factors including climate change adaptive management was incorporated in the dmnp ea and linked to the project goal and objectives to better respond to uncertainty and change. D 80, q 00 1overview the extent to which the earths climate will change as a result of human activity is still unclear. Managing uncertainty in climate driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change jeremy s. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. Goklany 1 introduction under most scenarios of the future world, including those developed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc in its special report on emission scenarios sres ipcc, 2000, the world should be getting more populated and wealthier during this century. It is commonplace to gauge this uncertainty by simulations with di. Adaptive design and risk management, mop 140, provides guidance for and contributes to the developing or enhancing of methods for infrastructure analysis and design in a world in which risk profiles are changing and can be projected with varying degrees of uncertainty requiring a new design philosophy to meet.
Adaptive management persists because it allows action despite uncertainty, and uncertainty is reduced when learning occurs during the management process. For fans of probability, confidence intervals and margins of error, climate change is a dream come true. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest. The best books on climate change and uncertainty five books. Shaw 2 1center for science in the earth system climate impacts group, university of washington, seattle, washington 98195 usa 2pacific wildland fire sciences lab, united. Adaptive management for climate change springerlink. In a book that is personal, as well as philosophically, politically, and scientifically wellinformed, he asks us to see the challenge of climate change in collective terms. Uncertainty is not exclusive to climate change and adaptation. This paper comments on the risks and uncertainty associated with climate change from an actuarial perspective, how a risk management perspective could help inform policy. Often termed learning by doing, the allure of this management approach has entrenched the concept widely in agency direction and statutory mandates across the globe. Human influence has been detected in nearly all of the major assessed components of the climate system.
A simplified approach is presented to evaluate climate change uncertainties. Though legislatures and agencies are considering how to prevent further climate change, some adverse effects from a warming climate are already inevitable. The calculability of climate change and the challenge of uncertainty pdf, epub, docx and torrent then this site is not for you. A key constraint on exploring future changes in flood risk and their uncertainty under climate change is that global climate models, especially where they need to be downscaled to reflect highly orographic rainfall regimes, do not capture local changes in the frequency. Taken together, the combined evidence increases the overall level of confidence in the attribution of observed climate change, and reduces the uncertainties associated with assessment based on a single climate variable. Adaptive management am, also known as adaptive resource management arm or adaptive environmental assessment and management aeam, is a structured, iterative process of robust decision making in the face of uncertainty, with an aim to reducing uncertainty over time via system monitoring. Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. It is context specific, and may depend on thresholds.
Adaptive management of socialecological systems craig r. Adaptive management an overview sciencedirect topics. A very interesting new article in nature climate change. Shaw 2 1center for science in the earth system climate impacts group, university of washington, seattle, washington 98195 usa. Adaptive management of climate change risks indur m. Potential impacts of climate change on food systems and food security, and possible adaptive responses 14 table 2. For this reason, and in keeping with recommendations of the u. Many other scientific and policy fields are confronted with a wide range of uncertainties in their work. Scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change this is a presentation by jay gulledge of the pew center on global climate change about the basic mechanisms and consequences of humaninduced climate change, as well as uncertain aspects such as climate sensitivity. Adaptive management is a tool which should be used not only to change a. Uncertainty in climate change adaptation suraje dessai sustainability research institute and esrc centre for climate change economics and policy, school of earth and environment, university of leeds, uk climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation cciam research group, faculty of sciences, university of lisbon, portugal. Uncertainty about climate change is compounded by the impacts that climate. It examines climate change impacts on forests and forest managers throughout the world.
There is now convincing evidence that our climate is changing, and that the emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are partly responsible for the observed changes. The communication of uncertainty is hindering climate. Pdf uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. The coherence of observed changes with simulations of anthropogenic. Carbon dioxide co 2 and other greenhouse gases, released into the atmosphere. Ignoring uncertainty about climate change in forest planning and management, i. Adaptive management am, also known as adaptive resource management arm or adaptive environmental assessment and management aeam, is a structured, iterative process of robust decision making in the face of uncertainty, with an. Adaptive management provides a hedge against uncertainty, such that climate and ecosystem models can inform decision making. Pdf the adaptive water resource management handbook. Adaptive management strategies can support managers and planners looking to overcome the inherent uncertainty surrounding climate change, its effects, and.
In this way, decision making simultaneously meets one or more resource management objectives and. Impacts of droughts on livestock numbers in selected african countries, 1981 to 1999 22 table 3. A key constraint on exploring future changes in flood risk and their uncertainty under climate change is that global climate models, especially where they need to be downscaled to reflect highly orographic rainfall regimes, do not capture local changes in the frequency and intensity of high intensity rainfall events. Uncertainty and climate change adaptationa scoping study.
Most scientists and decisionmakers now recognize that climate change has not only in. Risk, uncertainty and decisionmaking ukciptechnical report executive summary v executive summary climate change as a risk to decisionmakers 1. This perspective explores whether policymakers can learn from adaptive management techniques to make climate policies antifragile, embracing and benefitting from scientific uncertainty, rather. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest management 1 introduction managing forests under climate change is a difficult task largely because of the complexities and uncertainties involved. Adaptive and riskbased approaches to climate change and the. Climate changes uncertainty principle scientists say they can never be sure exactly how extreme global warming might become, but thats no excuse for delaying action by. This perspective explores whether policymakers can learn from adaptive management techniques to make climate policies antifragile, embracing and. Pdf humanitys transformation of the earth has increased the concentration of greenhouse gases, thereby altering earths climate. Restrepo, university of arizona and claudia tebaldi, climate central. Relying on single number best estimates can have maladaptive outcomes.
Adapting to these effects is essential, but regulators and scholars have largely neglected this need. When it comes to climate change, the greatest difficulty we face is that we do not know the likely degree of change or its cost, which means that environmental policy decisions have to be made under uncertainty. Key words adaptive management, climate change, nonstationarity, structured decisionmaking, uncertainty. Vulnerability is the extent to which an activity is susceptible to the effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. The best books on climate change and uncertainty five. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject. Uncertainty and the philosophy of climate change 1st. Climate changes uncertainty principle scientific american.
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